by Roman » Fri Jan 09, 2015 10:39 am
Here are my few thoughts about your concerns.
- Seasonality is not Holly Grail. Strategies have high probability winning, but seasonal windows are computer optimized based on history data. If something worked 15 times in the past, doesn't mean it have to work in future.
- Seasonality can't be traded blindly based only on seasonal windows. Sometimes seasonality comes earlier, sometimes starts later, some years it doesn't work at all, some years it goes inverse.
- You can also notice that there are only few strategies which went directly into profit in history. So why not to wait for better entry prices (check Avg. Worst) from backest, entry at SR etc.
- There are times, when seasonality works very well for example for whole year for almost every market and you can make a lot, but you can be sure that it will be followed by period of time when it will not work well and everything will go against you
- Our recommend strategies are selection from Search, for those who don't know how to select their own strategies from Search. Still you have to be picky, we prepare strategies two months ahead so we don't know what will happen with current spread. For example it's not really good idea to trade Crude Oil and it's products now because of strong fundamentals which cause inverse spread movement (even if strategy tells you 100% win)
- Always use seasonality only as part of the trading system, you need to use basic price action too see how is current spread developing (also compared to previous years, where are S/R levels etc), having good money and risk management is critical.
If you are new to spread trading, I suggest you to look to our Partners section and take some education, it will help you a lot. Or read some book about it (for example from Joe Ross).
Hope this helped you
Roman